Newsletter Archives

• Newsletter #3 (January 2009)
• Newsletter #2 (November 2008)
• Newsletter #1 (August 2008)
  
  

Newsletter #1, August 2008

We are now instituting a regular newsletter which will include from time to time updates on our progress as well as give you insight into important economic and market trends we think are relevant to share with you. This newsletter will be send to you on a biweekly or monthly basis and hopefully you will find the information both useful and interesting. When pressing news occurs which we feel you should be made aware of we may send out a news briefs more often.

We are currently seeing some very interesting patterns in the market that you may want to consider. The US dollar is strengthening and relative to the Euro has already gained 9% in value since early summer. This is due to the fact that the economic situation in US seems to be close to if not at the bottom and confidence is starting to rise both in industrial attitude and output as well as consumer spending. Forecasts indicate that this trend will continue throughout the year and into next for sure. Given this situation the dollar could end up gaining by year end a very significant value change in the range of 12%- 15% or more. I have attached two industry articles as follows that give you further insight:

1. Goldman Sachs: Global FX Monthly Analyst-August 2008 -although this is a rather large report (85 pages) I would encourage you to look at pages: ii, iii, iv and v as well as pages 2, 3 and 4 relative to their views on the Euro/Dollar situation. The charts really speak for themselves in giving you the reasons behind this forecast which if you look carefully at the trend lines they suggest that sometime in 2009 the dollar Euro conversion could hit as low as 1.20 which would be a 18% loss of value in the Euro over current levels which have already dropped 9% from the highs earlier this summer. This is a critical situation that must be factored into any investment thinking. Goldman has had a major reversal in their thinking and are now Bullish on the Dollar again.

2. Citigroup: Fundamental Focus August 18, 2008 - again a lengthy report (35 pages) where I would suggest you read pages 3 and 4 about currencies. The focus of this report is more oriented to various factors in industrial production from a commodities perspective which drives the global economies being this represents the basis for all products and manufacturing. Here again if you look at the chart on page 3 and follow the trend line you will conclude a similar number to that of Goldman.

We hope these articles and insights are helpful to you with your investment decisions. We at BVB stand ready to answer any and all questions you may have about this newsletter, our fund or any other investment opportunities we see. You can contact us anytime via email or directly via telephone (215-205-0700).

Best Regards and enjoy what is left of the summer.

The BVB Capital Group Team